The Oil Market Isn’t Correcting. It’s Confessing.
Start with what the price is actually saying. WTI Crude sat at $119.5 on March 9th. By March 23rd it had cratered to $88.1. It bounced — tepidly, almost apologetically — to $93.2 by March 26th. That’s not a correction. That’s a market that believed one story for months, got caught holding the bag, and is now quietly revising its memoirs. A 22% drawdown in under three weeks doesn’t happen because of one variable. It happens because several wrong assumptions were true at the same time, and then simultaneously weren’t. The dollar is the easiest villain to point at. The DXY at 99.7 — knocking on the door of the … Read more