The Ceasefire Trade Is Real. The Qatar Damage Is Permanent. Don’t Confuse the Two.
Everyone in this market is trading the wrong variable. The consensus view — WTI is falling from its peak because ceasefire odds are rising, so the energy shock is fading — is seductive, technically defensible, and probably wrong about where the real damage lands over the next sixty to ninety days. The crude price has already moved. The gas infrastructure story hasn’t. Start with what’s actually happening on the ground. Reuters confirmed this week that Qatar has been offloading LNG cargo slots at Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal for April delivery — a sign not of normalcy restored but of a supply chain in active triage. Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, … Read more