THE NONEXPERT a view, not a verdict.

Crack Spreads

Pétrole à 100 dollars : qu’est-ce que le marché ne pige toujours pas ?

Si le brut a déjà bondi de 72 % en trois mois, qu’est-ce que les investisseurs ont encore oublié d’intégrer ? Le WTI a clôturé à 99,6 $ le 27 mars 2026 sur les contrats à terme de premier échelon. Trois mois plus tôt, le 29 décembre 2025, il végétait à 58,1 $. On n’est plus dans la simple dérive haussière ; on est dans une réévaluation brutale de la réalité physique. Et il y a de bonnes raisons de penser que le processus est loin d’être terminé. L’explication évidente, c’est le Moyen-Orient. Les titres sur une guerre imminente avec l’Iran saturent le sentiment des marchés mondiaux. Mais regardez le … Read more

O que o mercado ainda não entendeu sobre o petróleo a US$ 100?

Se o petróleo bruto já saltou 72% em apenas três meses, o que exatamente o mercado ainda não colocou no preço? O WTI fechou em US$ 99,6 no dia 27 de março de 2026, considerando os contratos futuros do primeiro mês. Três meses antes, em 29 de dezembro de 2025, ele estava em US$ 58,1. Isso não é uma oscilação comum. É uma reprecificação da realidade física — e há bons argumentos de que esse processo ainda não terminou. A história óbvia é o Oriente Médio. As manchetes sobre uma guerra com o Irã estão saturando o sentimento do comércio global. As Filipinas declararam emergência energética nacional para proteger o … Read more

100-Dollar-Öl: Was der Markt immer noch nicht kapiert

Wenn Rohöl innerhalb von drei Monaten um 72 % zulegt, stellt sich eine berechtigte Frage: Was genau hat der Markt eigentlich immer noch nicht eingepreist? WTI schloss am 27. März 2026 laut den Frontmonat-Futures bei 99,6 $. Nur drei Monate zuvor, am 29. Dezember 2025, lag der Preis noch bei 58,1 $. Das ist kein bloßes Mitlaufen mit dem Trend. Das ist eine knallharte Neubewertung der physischen Realität – und es spricht vieles dafür, dass dieser Prozess noch nicht am Ende ist. Die offensichtliche Story ist der Nahe Osten. Schlagzeilen über einen drohenden Iran-Krieg dominieren die Stimmung im Welthandel. Die Philippinen haben den nationalen Energienotstand ausgerufen, um die heimische Versorgung … Read more

¿Qué es lo que el mercado todavía no entiende del petróleo a 100 dólares?

Si el crudo ya se ha disparado un 72% en apenas tres meses, ¿qué es exactamente lo que el mercado aún no ha descontado en el precio? El WTI cerró en 99.6 dólares el 27 de marzo de 2026, según los futuros del mes más próximo. Tres meses antes, el 29 de diciembre de 2025, cotizaba a 58.1. Eso no es una simple oscilación; es un ajuste de cuentas con la realidad física del mercado, y hay argumentos de peso para pensar que el proceso aún no ha terminado. La historia obvia es Oriente Medio. Los titulares sobre un conflicto con Irán están saturando el sentimiento del comercio global. Filipinas … Read more

What Is the Market Still Getting Wrong About $100 Oil?

If crude oil has already moved 72% in three months, what exactly is the market still not pricing in? WTI settled at $99.6 on March 27, 2026, according to front-month futures. Three months earlier, on December 29, 2025, it was $58.1. That is not a drift. That is a repricing of physical reality — and there is a reasonable case that it is still incomplete. The obvious story is the Middle East. Iran war headlines are saturating global trade sentiment. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency to protect domestic supply, which is a specific kind of signal. Countries do not reach for emergency declarations when they expect markets to … Read more

The Market Is Pricing Geopolitics. It’s Not Pricing the Crack Spread Problem.

WTI crude settled at $90.3 per barrel on March 24, 2026 — up 55% in roughly five weeks from a January low of $58.3. That move is extraordinary. But here’s the thing: the market is underpricing the wrong part of this crisis. Everyone is watching crude. The real trade is in what crude becomes once it hits a refinery, and right now, a critical piece of that conversion capacity just blew up. The primary signal driving this analysis is US crack spreads — the margin between raw crude oil and finished refined products like gasoline and diesel. Valero Energy Corp.’s major refinery explosion and subsequent shutdown has introduced a second-order … Read more